Icebergs, penguins, and nearly 500,000 yearly visitors could be part of Antarctica’s future landscape over the coming years, as suggested by recent studies.
While the southern continent can be chilly, distant, and costly to access, it is gradually being seen more frequently as a must-visit location.
In recent years, the number of tourists has surged dramatically, increasing from approximately 8,000 during the mid-1990s to nearly 125,000 for the period spanning 2023-24.
A new
a report released in the Journal of Sustainable Tourism
indicates that the growth spurt will persist, with projections estimating that yearly tourist arrivals could climb to 452,000 by the year 2033-34.
The projection was derived from a mathematical model that factored in thirty years of past visitation records.
Should the prediction hold true, it could result in a nearly fourfold surge from present figures, leading to demands for implementing strategies like limiting visitor numbers and introducing tourism levies to counterbalance possible ecological effects.
“The most accurate estimation at present is this one,” stated lead author Dr Valeria Senigaglia from the Queensland University of Technology (QUT).
“And I think it gives us a sense of urgency and a warning that we need to better protect and regulate more strictly.”
The majority of tourist activities take place along the coast of the Antarctic Peninsula, largely because of its closeness to the southernmost point of Argentina, from which numerous cruises originate.
After arriving in Antarctica, visitors have the opportunity to engage in various activities such as small boat shore excursions, kayaking adventures, ice-cold dips known as polar plunges, underwater exploration through snorkeling, scenic flights via helicopter, and even spending an evening camped out under the southern sky.
However, the increase in population and ships brings possible threats to the nearby ecosystem, which includes:
- Disruption of fauna, flora, and scenery
- Introduction and proliferation of non-native species and illnesses
- Pollution from waste disposal and fuel leaks
- Noise and congestion
- Non-scientific collecting
- Black carbon emissions
“A core concern is that the cumulative impacts of tourism … will interact with climate-change-induced shifts … resulting in widespread habitat degradation and declines in wildlife populations and diversity,” the report states.
To put it more directly, Antarctica might be at risk of becoming another globally famous destination that has allegedly been ruined by overpopulation of visitors.
Staff indicate that current guidelines are effective.
In the 2023-24 season, 55 tour operators organized 569 trips to Antarctica, with approximately two-thirds of travelers sailing aboard smaller expedition-type ships capable of making landings.
Many tour operators venturing into the area are part of the International Association of Antarctica Tour Operators (IAATO). This association mandates that its members adhere to stringent rules, such as:
- Limits on the dimensions of vessels permitted to dock and disembark travelers
- Management of vessel traffic to avoid overcrowding at frequently used docking locations
- Restrictions on the total number of visitors allowed on land simultaneously
- Biosecurity inspections and protocols
- Guidelines for observing wildlife, which involve keeping a certain distance away
- Compulsory training for guides along with orientations for visitors
Activities for tourists in Antarctica must also undergo environmental impact assessments as per the Protocol on Environmental Protection to the Antarctic Treaty.
“As effectively handled, travel serves as a strong agent for positive change,” stated Steve McLaughlin from IAATO-member Aurora Expeditions.
The concept is to create planetary ambassadors.
Steps advised to avoid reaching a critical threshold
The newly released report — put together by scholars from QUT, UTAS, CSIRO along with two overseas institutions — examined supplementary strategies that might work alongside current policies and rules.
“Our primary goal is to identify practical ways to manage for the potential impacts of this rapidly growing and diversifying Antarctic tourism industry before reaching a tipping point of irreparable change,” the report states.
The researchers determined that a “suite of instruments” would be the best way to slow growth and limit potential impacts, including:
- Limiting the number of visitors in delicate regions
- Imposing greater taxes on high-impact activities like helicopter tours
- Strengthening accreditation for touring businesses
“Managing tourism sustainably requires us to work on a higher plane,” stated Dr Senigaglia.
We require regulations and location-specific guidelines, however, these should not be the sole approach.
Implementing additional worldwide tools could aid in protecting both biodiversity and the ecosystem services supplied by Antarctica.
Implementing the suggestions might be tough, as the report recognizes the challenge of gaining agreement from countries that are part of the Antarctic Treaty.
The industry argues that long-term predictions lack reliability.
IAATO informed the ABC of its dedication to responsible tourism practices.
“The organization is led by individuals who have an immense passion for Antarctica and its preservation,” stated Lisa Kelley, the group’s executive director.
Ms Kelley stated that the report’s prediction of rapid expansion in the coming ten years ought to be approached with skepticism, mainly due to potential unexpected shifts in the worldwide economic landscape.
_growth_ is highly connected to the _[global]_ economy,” Ms Kelley stated.
At present, with global economic worries, tourism generally slows down, especially for destinations as remote as Antarctica.
She mentioned that according to IAATO’s latest statistics—which have not been released yet and weren’t part of the report—there was a decline of 5% in tourist numbers during the 2024-25 season.
Ms Kelley mentioned that visitor numbers were anticipated to decrease somewhat slightly during the upcoming season.
She stated that it was upon the Antarctic Treaty countries to determine the most suitable methods for regulating the tourism sector.
The Antarctic and Southern Ocean Coalition (ASOC), representing global non-governmental environmental groups, stated that if visitor counts continued to increase, industry standards and voluntary regulations would prove inadequate.
“If you fail to regulate one of the key human activities that’s expanding quite quickly, then you’re not truly safeguarding the Antarctic environment,” stated Claire Christian, the executive director of ASOC.
Next month’s annual Antarctic Treaty Consultative Meeting in Italy will address the future management of tourism.
