When Anthony Burgess from Biddeford was able to vote for the first time in 2014, he chose to support Republican U.S. Senator Susan Collins. Despite being a registered Democrat, he aimed to reinforce Maine’s image as an independently-minded state and believed Collins represented this spirit. However, after that initial election, he did not vote for her again.
Many residents from York County who frequently come together to demonstrate against the state’s senior senator admitted that over the course of her extensive tenure, they have cast votes for her themselves. However, their perception of her changed largely during President Donald Trump’s initial term and became even more firmly entrenched throughout his subsequent administration.
However, Collins emerged victorious in 2020 despite not having the backing of individuals such as Burgess. In the previous election when Collins sought another term, her Democratic rival, Sara Gideon—who was serving as the Speaker of the Maine House at the time—centered her campaign on questioning whether Collins’ views had evolved since she initially entered the Senate in 1996.
She attempted to focus the election on Senator Collins,” stated State Senator Rick Bennett, a moderate Republican from Oxford, “but it didn’t succeed.
In the November 2026 midterm elections, when Collins faces re-election, the event could serve as a litmus test for Trump’s standing, according to Bennett. Nonetheless, he noted that the identity of Collins’ challenger is equally significant. With over eighteen months until the polls open, several potential opponents have begun stepping forward into the spotlight.
Collins informed the Maine Morning Star that she plans to seek reelection in 2026 and emphasized her track record of benefiting Maine, particularly through financial achievements, as evidence that she continues to be the most suitable candidate to represent the state.
Her dedication has previously assisted in bringing together a successful group of supporters. Nonetheless, amid growing calls for allegiance to Trump, narrow Republican leads in Congress, and Collins’ election viewed as a potential chance for Democrats to capture more Senate seats, experts in law, her detractors across the political spectrum, along with poll data suggest that the precarious balance she has maintained is becoming increasingly fragile.
Known opponents
Collins is set to compete against at least two opponents in the primaries:
Carmen Calabrese
of Kennebunkport and
Daniel Smeriglio
Residents of Frenchville have applied to run as Republicans. Calabrese, who relocated to Maine from Florida five years ago, works as a driver for Walmart and is a former small-business owner. Smeriglio leads the conservative organization Voice of the People USA, which includes both a radio show and an activism group.
An
independent
Also joining the competition is Phillip Rench from Waterboro, who serves on the board of directors for the Maine Space Corporation and is the owner of Ossipee Hill Farm and Observatory. Previously, he worked as a senior engineer at Elon Musk’s SpaceX; however, he mentioned having no current affiliation with Musk or the organization beyond holding stock awards received during his tenure as an employee.
So far, two Democratic candidates are competing for Maine’s U.S. Senate position.
Jordan Wood
From Bristol, who hails originally from Lewiston, dedicated approximately ten years to political work in Washington, D.C., where they served as chief of staff for ex-Democratic U.S. Representative Katie Porter from California.
Natasha Alcala
of Madawaska is currently a fashion designer who moved to Maine from California a little over four years ago. She has degrees in international relations and criminal justice and is a U.S. Navy veteran. Alcala previously filed to run against U.S. Sen. Angus King in 2024 but withdrew before the primary.
A focus on money, in many respects
During the previous election cycle, Collins’ appeal to the people of Maine centered around this message:
capacity to obtain federal financing for the state
During her anticipated rise to become the head of one of the chamber’s most influential committees, a role she currently occupies, she highlighted this fact when explaining why she thinks she remains the ideal candidate to represent Maine.
Susan Collins has attained a peak level of influence. What will she do with this power?
“By climbing that ladder in the last three years I have been able to secure more than a billion dollars for hundreds of projects in communities across our state,” Collins said, “That would not have happened without the seniority that I have.”
Collins emphasized the earmarks she has obtained for various investments across all 16 counties of Maine, along with broader legislative measures affecting residents statewide. She notably co-authored the Social Security Fairness Act, which was enacted earlier this year during former President Joe Biden’s tenure and reinstated complete benefits for numerous public-sector employees.
Calabrese recognized that Collins’ position as lead budget allocator is an advantage. “There’s no disputing that,” he stated, “however, I appreciate your effort, yet I also see it as using my funds. These are my tax dollars after all.”
Calabrese believes those tax dollars could be used more effectively if Collins aligned herself with Trump more frequently.
“If you find yourself agreeing more with his viewpoints, perhaps you’ll perform better,” Calabrese stated.
Rench stated that he does not believe Collins’ ongoing argument about being the most capable person to provide financial benefits for the state holds up.
“What we need to do as a state is become less dependent on federal dollars,” he said.
Rench said he would do this by building a stronger economic foundation for Maine families, including by addressing what he sees as “brain drain” in the state by overhauling the school system to have both college and trade school tracks. As someone who left the state after college to pursue opportunities in the space industry and then returned, he said he understands why young people leave and wants to change it.
He is suggesting transforming various sectors, like establishing a federal reserve for dimensional lumber, enhancing Maine’s capacity for producing and processing food to cater to national needs, and positioning Maine at the forefront of the aerospace industry.
Wood formerly assisted in guiding End Citizens United, a political action committee aimed at overturning the 2010 Supreme Court ruling.
Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission
, which removed constraints on corporate and union funding of independent political activities.
Among his main focuses will be fighting corruption and reducing the influence of large sums of money in political processes. He stated that he intends to set an example through his campaign by declining contributions from corporate Political Action Committees (PACs) and lobbyists. Additionally, he pledges never to work as a lobbyist post-office service, abstain from trading personal stocks, and prevent both his relatives and his team’s families from lobbying his office regarding specific matters.
Given Trump’s cuts to federal funds, Alcala stated she would suggest that Maine collaborate with other states that boast significant gross domestic products, like California, to guarantee that inconsistencies in federal funding do not hinder individuals from obtaining essential services. This includes ensuring access to low-income food aid programs and making higher education tuition-free.
“Given our joint GDP, we undoubtedly have the means to provide additional financial support to those who require it,” Alcala stated.
Smeriglio did not respond to interview requests.
Accessibility
The constituents who have contacted Collins—including Jerry Kaufman from Cape Elizabeth, an independent voter who says he sends emails to Collins almost daily, as well as Cokie Giles, a registered nurse at Eastern Maine Medical Center in Bangor who frequently participates in federal lobbying events—express that their voices seem to go unheard.
A frequent criticism from these two individuals from Maine and others is that Collins has not held a town hall meeting for at least 25 years.
Collins deferred to her press secretary Blake Kernen when asked about constituent requests for town halls.
“She prefers smaller group meetings or Zooms, rather than holding town halls where very few people get to speak, and the level of civility is often not that high,” the spokesperson said. “These forums were also difficult for people who were more reserved or less comfortable speaking in public.”
Kernan additionally mentioned that Collins personally interacts with thousands of people from Maine each year at her office and various events throughout the state.
These concerns regarding accessibility are not specific to the Republican senator. People from Maine have begun to voice their frustrations.
town halls
To voice their worries, irrespective of whether their current congressional representatives choose to participate or not. In Maine, Democratic U.S. Representative Chellie Pingree stands out, as she organized one such event.
in-person town halls
In early April, her first one since 2017.
So far, at public events, several of Collins’ opponents have intentionally resorted to personal appeals directly aimed at voters in order to differentiate themselves.
Since launching his campaign more than a month ago, Wood has organized two town halls. He intends to host one in each of Maine’s 16 counties throughout the election period and, should he win, quarterly thereafter. Additionally, if elected, Wood aims to share his monthly schedule publicly so that his constituents can know whom he meets with regularly.
Rench opened up his observatory this spring to meet constituents and intends to travel around the state with his mobile telescope to continue one-on-one discussions.
Alcala mentioned her intention to launch a YouTube channel aimed at providing a more open view of herself and her opinions for the electorate.
Calabrese is beginning by addressing gatherings of local Republicans and attempting to connect with individuals at events like forthcoming county fairs.
Insights gained from previous elections
Several individuals who oppose Collins are consciously attempting to avoid repeating what they perceive as Gideon’s errors from the previous election cycle.
Rench compiled a list of critiques he had encountered regarding Gideon, even touching upon her choice to wear clothes from Patagonia, which competes with L.L. Bean. However, the point that resonates most strongly with him is concentrating on what he can contribute to the Senate rather than dwelling on what he perceives as deficiencies in Collins.
I believe audiences aren’t interested in hearing criticisms of Collins,” Rench stated. “They already know her well.
In Rench’s view, neither of the major parties adequately represent the working class, which is why he chose to run as an independent. In particular, he said, “I still think the Democratic Party is stuck in grief.”
On a national level, Senate Democrats have outlined their campaign strategies, with Senator Collins being a primary target.
The political wing of Senate Democrats initiated
running digital ads
In April, during debates with Collins and Republican U.S. Senator Thom Tillis from North Carolina, discussions emerged about the Trump administration’s intentions to reduce telephone benefits for Social Security recipients. However, these cuts have yet to be implemented. In reaction to this issue, Collins emphasized her role in advancing the Social Security Fairness Act.
Running as a Democrat, Wood is incorporating insights gained from the presidential election, notably his party’s growing divide with working-class and younger voters, into the development of his campaign strategy.
It is our duty as candidates and representatives of this political party to demonstrate to those voters that we are the group they should view as advocates for their interests,” Wood stated. “I will dedicate ample time to engage with these communities, sharing my perspective on what lies ahead and outlining the policies I intend to promote to improve their quality of life.
Concerns about the average age of Congress have been brought up in previous election cycles.
At 72 years old, Collins is set to run for her sixth consecutive term as senator. Wood, Wrench, and Alcala stressed their desire to bring a more youthful viewpoint to Congress compared to Collins.
Calabrese is particularly concerned with how long Collins has been in office. He stated that he would limit himself to serving just two terms if voted into office.
“I believe it’s time for certain individuals—by that, I mean those of us who aren’t from Middle America but share similar values—to step up with ‘boots on the ground’ involvement since they comprehend what needs to be done,” he stated.
Can Collins stay aligned with expectations?
Both parties have grown more
ideologically cohesive
establishing a political climate that becomes unwelcoming towards legislators who position themselves at the center — a demographic increasingly scarce in Congress.
During Trump’s final term as president, Collins proved to be a more dependable supporter of her party compared to her previous voting history. In 2017,
87%
Of her votes were along party lines. This represented a change, since from 1997 to 2016, according to Congressional Quarterly, she supported her party on such votes just 59% of the time.
However, last year, she diverged from her party more than any other senator did.
analysis from Roll Call
discovered that Collins supported the Republicans 47.8% of the time in 2024, primarily due to her votes for President Joe Biden’s appointees. The degree of her bipartisan efforts varies based on the issue at hand; however, she stands out during the Trump presidency as someone who did not endorse the president yet also didn’t completely distance herself from him.
“I might not describe her as being entirely outside her own party, but to some degree she certainly is,” stated Mark Brewer, who chairs the political science department at the University of Maine.
A smaller number of individuals are engaging in and thriving within cross-party initiatives. Nevertheless, the achievements of Senator Collins—her role being one of just two senators from her party who represent states where Trump was unsuccessful in 2024—and Representative Jared Golden, a Democrat from the second district that similarly backed Trump, illustrate that this practice remains alive in Maine, according to Brewer. Additionally, Brewer highlighted former Congressman Bennett as an ongoing figurehead of bipartisanship.
Those competing with Collins have adopted more specific positions, supporting as well as opposing Trump.
Wood stated that during the January 6 assault, he remained hidden in Porter’s office behind locked doors. Following this event, he helped establish democracyFIRST, a group committed to defending democratic principles and addressing escalating dangers to transparent and impartial voting processes.
“I believe Collins had plenty of chances to show courage by standing up against both Donald Trump and her own party, but she hasn’t managed to do that,” Wood stated.
Referring to Trump as a “would-like-to-be dictator and an autocrat aiming to concentrate all power in his hands,” he stated that securing a Senate majority for the Democrats in the 2026 elections would create a greater chance to challenge the president during the last two years of his term.
As Trump cuts back on federal funding, Collins’ commitment to support Maine faces a challenge.
Alcala is positioning herself as someone who will challenge Trump. “There’s a coup d’etat happening with Trump and Elon Musk,” she stated. “Given that Trump is diverting funds away from Mainers—regardless of their political affiliation, be it Republican, liberal, etc.—the reality is that we cannot depend on our present leadership.”
Calabrese stated that if elected, he would work towards enshrining several of Trump’s executive orders into legislation. He praised Trump’s stance on immigration policies, noting, “I completely concur with him regarding all this unlawful immigration.”
He also backs Trump’s effort to transform the U.S. into
world leader in Artificial Intelligence
And the reductions implemented by his Department of Government Efficiency.
Calabrese stated, “The President is not a monarch,” adding that he would aim to strike a balance between assisting the President in implementing their agenda and upholding the separation of powers.
Calabrese stated, “If he has to submit his executive orders to the Supreme Court, then so be it; that’s how the system of checks and balances works.”
Rench was inspired to run for office due to Collins’ crucial vote that enabled the confirmation of Justice Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court.
I have a nine-year-old daughter, and following Senator Collins’ role, as I see it, in reversing Roe v. Wade,” Rench stated, “I can no longer entrust my daughter’s future to her.
Collins supported Kavanaugh following her statement that he reassured her.
private assurances
He didn’t pose a danger to the historic abortion decision that he would vote to reverse in the future.
Initial polls indicate that the senator now enjoys significantly less support compared to previous years.
A poll from
Morning Consult
It was discovered that over the past quarter, Collins’ net approval dropped by 12 percentage points – a larger decline compared to any other senator. The survey indicates that currently, 51% of voters in Maine do not approve of Collins, which has increased from 47% at the close of last year.
Much of Collins’ issue lies in her strategy towards Trump, which involves irritating everybody around her.
– Public Policy Polling
Another
poll
Commissioned by a leading Democratic super PAC indicates Collins is facing pressure from multiple directions.
A significant aspect of Collins’ challenge is that her strategy towards Trump involves irritating everybody,
The pollster mentioned in a memorandum
.
A poll conducted among 569 registered voters in Maine revealed that 81% of those supporting Democratic vice-presidential candidate Kamala Harris believe Senator Harris aligns too closely with President Trump, whereas 73% of Trump supporters feel she does not agree with him frequently enough. Just 10% consider her approach well-balanced.
However, on Monday, Pan Atlantic Research published its most recent independent report.
Omnibus Poll
gathering the views of 840 potential voters and discovered a nearly equal division among those who view Collins positively or negatively, which mirrors its previous poll results from September.
“With over a year left until Election Day, it’s much too soon to conduct polls at this point,” stated Kernan, who is Collins’ spokesperson.
Pollsters have previously misjudged Collins’ stance. On the eve of the 2020 election, surveys in Maine indicated that Senator Collins was trailing her Democratic rival, Gideon, by about six percentage points. However, Collins ended up winning by nearly 9%.
A few believe she managed to win over uncommitted voters towards the end, and that pollsters failed to predict that people in Maine would vote for candidates from different parties.
Wood pointed out that Collins cast her vote against Supreme Court Justice Amy Coney Barrett just prior to the 2020 election.
“It was a reminder that she has a tendency to be independent sometimes and there was a hope that she could be a catalyst in some way for a post-Trump Republican Party, that was the Republican Party they grew up with,” Wood said of voters. “That did not come to fruition. I think that voters now have a much clearer understanding of the threat in front of us.”
However, aside from this election, surveyors nationwide fell short in both 2020 and 2016 when trying to precisely gauge public sentiment, especially among working-class individuals living in rural regions.
Regarding Collins’ ongoing independent, Maine-focused approach, Brewer commented, “I believe it will be more challenging for her to maintain this strategy. However, that does not rule out the possibility of her succeeding.”
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